Predict, prediction markets on a pool

02Creating a market

1. Pick any active pool. The metric is its fee earnings.
2. Set the threshold, the amount of growth that decides Over from Under. It counts the pool's fee earnings in token units on the chain's 8-decimal scale, both tokens added together. From contract 4.1.8 each token's fees count at face value, so 1 KCAL of fees adds 1. On older versions, fees in a token with more than 8 decimals count at a fraction of their value (KCAL 1/100, TAZ 1/10) and fees in one with fewer at a multiple, and a market created there keeps that basis until it settles.
3. Set how long it runs, in seconds, minutes, hours or days. From contract 4.1.7 a market can be any length you choose, though the admin may set a minimum, which the form shows under the field. Older versions require at least 1 hour. The length counts from the block your transaction lands in, so one right at the minimum, or only a few seconds long, is refused if signing takes longer; the form warns about that and still sends the length you typed.
4. Set the token people buy shares with and the minimum buy.
5. Launch. Shares are on sale immediately.

03Buying shares and settling

• Anyone buys Over or Under shares with the market's token, at or above the minimum. 1 token buys 1 share.
• After the end time, the first claim triggers resolution. The winning side's shares split everything paid into the market, both sides included, in proportion to how many each holder has.
• Over wins when the fees grew by the threshold or more, landing exactly on it included. Anything less is Under, so a pool that earned nothing (no trades) is always a win for Under.
• The first claim after the end reads the fees at that moment, so trades between the end and that claim still count. Claim soon after the end. On the weekly markets Saturn makes that first claim itself, within a minute or two of the end.
• A 2 percent protocol fee comes out of each winner's whole payout, what they paid for their shares included. In a market with 1 SOUL of shares on each side, the winning share pays 1.96 SOUL: 2 percent of the payout, but 4 percent of the 1 SOUL won.
• If only one side has shares, nobody wins: everything paid in is refunded in full, with no fee. The market then shows as refunded.
• Every amount of a market is in its own token, chosen by the creator. Each market card shows that token and its minimum buy.
• Fee earnings only ever go up, so the outcome cannot be pushed back down after the fact.
• For the same reason, from contract 4.1.7 buying closes as soon as the pool's fees have grown by the threshold: the outcome is decided, and late shares would only be bought on a known result. If both sides have shares, Over wins. If one side is empty, nobody can win, so everything paid in is refunded in full after the end. Older versions sell shares until the end. Each card shows the growth so far, and a market that is already decided says so. It still settles on the first claim after its end time.

04Weekly markets

• Saturn opens a market every week on two mainnet pools: KCAL/TAZ #1 and SOUL/KCAL #12. Each runs from Monday 00:00 UTC to the next Monday 00:00 UTC, so a new one starts as the old one ends. They carry a Weekly tag on the Predict page.
• The target is what the pool earned the week before, so the question is simply: will this week beat last week? The pool's first market uses its average week so far.
• Shares are bought with TAZ, from 1 TAZ. Everything else works like any market: Over, Under, the 2 percent fee on winnings, and a full refund if only one side has shares.
• Within a minute or two of a market's end, Saturn makes the first claim itself, holding no shares of its own. That locks the result (trades until that claim still count), and each winner then claims their payout whenever they like.